In the complex domestic and international economic environment , China 's economy will produce what kind of half the respondents ? NBS spokesman Sheng Yun data released to the press on July 15 , so many reporters lamented : " ! Data kinda nice , a little surprise ."
Overall good running posture : high growth, high employment , low inflation
In addition to the data , Sheng Yun summarizes the characteristics of the first half of the national economy : the overall situation is good, continue to move in the expected direction of macro regulation and control . This feature can be analyzed from six aspects .
A look at the real economy. In the first half of gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 11.1% over last year to speed up 3.7 percentage points. Agricultural production situation is basically stable , although production of 8 billion kilograms of summer , but still a good harvest is the third since the founding of New China , above-scale industries continued to maintain a rapid growth , the growth rate reached 17.6%.
Second look needs. Stimulating economic growth from the troika , the domestic and external demand for economic growth momentum in enhanced coordination growing. In the first half of total fixed asset investment grew by 25 %, although somewhat lower than last year , but is still relatively high speed. The total retail sales of social consumption grew by 18.2% , maintaining a relatively high growth rate. Rapid recovery of foreign trade import and export , import and export growth of 43.1 percent , including a faster import growth , an increase of 52.7% . He explains the growth of imports in domestic demand is still relatively strong , on the other hand also shows that China 's economic growth for the world economic recovery has made a great contribution.
Third, look at the economic environment . The first half of the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6 %, of which 1.4 percentage point rise in the price hikes last year , the new price factor is 1.2 percentage points , which means that the price was generally mild and controllable , stable.
Four to see jobs. According to statistics , employment in urban units in the first half increased by more than 500 million and employment of migrant workers have a greatly improved over last year, the first half of migrant workers in employment increased by 632 million farmers .
Five to see the quality of economic growth. Four basic income to maintain a rapid growth : fiscal revenue grew 27.6 percent in the first half , above-scale industrial profits grew by 81.6% , urban and rural incomes are basically maintained the rate of 7% -10 % .
Six key areas of macro-control to see . Regulation in the first half can be said to have achieved positive results , especially in the macro-control real estate market prices rising too fast momentum has been significantly curbed, and there has been a downward trend. With increase energy conservation efforts , starting in the second quarter , high energy-consuming industries fall speed is relatively fast. In addition, three major changes in the industrial structure , the proportion of value added services has increased, the proportion of secondary industry decreased . Regional economic structure continues to change in a positive direction , fixed asset investment growth than the central and western high 6-7 percent in eastern regions, while industrial growth is higher 2-3 percentage points.
Sheng Yun said: " From the above six areas , despite the slow recovery of the international economy , Europe's debt crisis is still spreading , the country also faces major challenges prone to natural disasters , but the Chinese economy as a whole or to maintain a high growth, high employment, low inflation, such a good development trend , which shows that the measures in response to the central macro-control policies and the development of the international financial crisis is taken science , powerful and effective . "
Growth down do not worry : the combined effect of the base and control, is still above the level of growth potential
In the first half of this year, the road is very flat world economic recovery , the European sovereign debt crisis to the parties concerned to bring the economy " double dip" . This also makes some people fear the Chinese economy pessimism .
GDP growth in China in the first quarter was 11.9 % in the second quarter was 10.3 %, compared with the first quarter, 1.6 percentage points down what means ? Above-scale industrial added value of greater magnitude lower , down 3.7 percentage points , these data will exacerbate fears of an economic downturn ?
Sheng Yun analysis that fell in the second quarter GDP growth was mainly affected by last year's base and part of the macro-control policies. In 2009, China 's economy is the trend of low to high before , in the first quarter after the adjustments , preliminary verification of the quarterly GDP growth rate was 6.5% in the second quarter, preliminary verification quarter GDP growth rate was 8.1 percent, from low to high . Scale industrial added value of speed greater volatility in the first quarter of last year was 5.1 % in the second quarter, an increase of 9.1 %. From low to high base last year , pulled down economic growth in the second quarter of this year, played a significant role.
"Economic growth is a certain degree of decline , in addition to base effect , which we expect to achieve macro-control . Economic growth rate fell moderately , help to prevent the economy from becoming overheated transformation, to the intensification of structural adjustment and development transformation efforts . " Sheng Yun said.
Despite economic growth in the second quarter there was a certain degree of decline , but it is still running in the normal growth range . Statistics department also calculated the chain growth , average daily production of the main indicators of the physical volume of industrial products such as industrial scale over the second quarter compared with the first quarter did not fall , is still growing . Such as power generation , in the second quarter from the first quarter grew by 6.2% , steel production in the second quarter from the first quarter grew by 12.8 %.
In addition , the Chinese economy over the past 30 years, the average annual growth rate was 9.9 %, and some experts believe that China's potential growth rate should be between 9% to 10%. Whether it is 11.1 percent in the first half , or 10.3 percent in the second quarter , are still above the level of potential growth , so do not worry too much about .
Inflation moderate and controllable : there is uncertainty in the second half , at around 3 % of base
Manage inflation expectations , is one of the key macroeconomic regulation this year . June CPI rose 2.9% , down 0.2 percentage points from last month . From the chain perspective , June CPI fell by 0.6% , a decrease greater. Since many agencies had forecast June CPI growth will remain above 3% level , therefore, June CPI YoY and MoM changes beyond many people 's expectations .
Sheng Yun analyzed two reasons . On the one hand , from the perspective of the total change in the first half of this year, the government paid great attention to the management of inflation expectations and liquidity problems. From the first half of the data, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 18.5% , a decrease of eight or nine percentage points higher than last year. On the other hand , from the structural point of view , mainly due to the June listing of vegetables and fruits a lot , causing the prices of vegetables and fruit prices dropped significantly over the ring , causing food prices caused .
Although the CPI trend showed a moderate trend , but because grain production declined 0.3% , the recent severe flood in the south , people are still worried about food prices will rise , and then push CPI higher in the second half .
The impact of changes in food production , Sheng Yun introduced to , although summer grain output has been cut , but still a good harvest is the third in history. " As autumn production , from the current acreage of view is quite stable if the latter managed well , maybe even get a good harvest . Everyone must remember the great flood of 1998 , when it is the food of our history one high-yield years . " from the supply of food to see six consecutive years harvest, grain stocks are abundant . Therefore, the overall supply and demand , at present does not have a basis for food rose sharply . Some varieties of food in the second quarter , including varieties of small grains or indeed higher , but still a structural rise.
After seeing the impact of fluctuations in prices of agricultural products , we must also see the second half of the downward price changes are also factors . One year after inflation hikes from July to gradually reduce ; Second, the current supply and demand of industrial products is still oversupply , prices of industrial products have some upstream repression . Meanwhile, the global economic recovery process is not as strong as expected , especially after the European sovereign debt crisis , relatively slow economic recovery process , making the international crude oil , minerals and other commodity prices rise weakened. This eased the pressure on our imported inflation to some extent .
Sheng Yun acknowledged that the second half of either the economy or the trend of prices , is still fraught with uncertainty , so the management of inflation expectations can not relax , but the annual price at around 3% is still based .
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