The national bureau of statistics are set to release on April 11, the main economic data.If no accident, consumer price index (CPI) and producer prices (PPI) rose to expand than both last month.Especially the CPI to rebound after a brief back in March, the rally could continue to continue in the coming months.Observers point out that the increasing of managing inflation expectations at the same time, the macroeconomic regulation and control the necessary caution is still indispensable.3 months China's CPI rose 2.4%, than fell 0.3% last month.But due to the pork and vegetable prices rebounded, plus the base period factors contribute to increased, April CPI growth could rebound to about 2.8%, or even not rule out the possibility of to 3%.For price, can not be ignored are two potential threat.The first it is difficult to judge the recent rebound in pork prices is the short-term effects of purchase policy, or a new round of rising early.Although food prices, the stability of supply and demand, but in a row under the influence of natural disasters, continue to harvest more grain this year is very difficult.The second is the real estate regulation is likely to have achieved, future housing such as apparent cooling, do not rule out the possibility of pushing the "capital of non-food prices.In short, is in the second quarter of this year prices of the most stressful moments.Some experts believe that don't rule out the possibility of monthly CPI is close to 5%.In addition to the price, the other economic indicators released is expected to remain stable positive momentum.Quarter of China's consumer confidence index rose to a record for three years, a strong cyclical and energy-intensive industry output growth is strong, coupled with the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), and other leading indicators of positive, experts expect that in addition to investment in fixed assets may down slightly in April, the added value of exports, retail, industrial indexes will maintain rapid growth, such as do not rule out the possibility to continue to go up.The upward heat, and the economy in such a situation, our country obviously will continue in the second quarter of the pace of monetary policy normalisation.Central bank again in early may have to raise the deposit reserve rate, in the future the central bank could still use quantity and the price tool.For the supervision of the credit and local financing platform scrutiny will also increase.Currency, in the second quarter of the single form of peg to the dollar could also change, and restore the two-way fluctuation trend of appreciation.If prices rebound pressure to alert words, so, the recent two economic events at home and abroad shows that optimism about the recovery, even concerns "overheating".First, marked by "the ten countries" of the real estate regulation greatly reduce the housing bubble to blow up and even the possibility of a housing market crash, from the long-term economic development are obviously not do more harm than good.But can't rule out short-term to cooling property investment, building materials, furniture and other related consumer pullback.Second, countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain's sovereign debt crisis symptom appeared again, the international financial crisis continues to have market turmoil in more than two years later, this shows that China's external demand recovery will not be smooth.It also confirms the real estate and export - China's strong growth last two engine power recovery may still take time.All in all, the current our country's economy has not really into the recovery phase, the need to macroeconomic regulation and control scope, maintain flexibility to cope with different situations.Specific to deal with the "growth" and "stable prices" relationship, take into account the stimulus and the influence of carryover effect of last year, when the CPI growth is less than 4%, or did not appear sudden growth factors, can consider to a moratorium on the use of harsh means such as higher interest rates.In addition to concern about "overheating" economy, some argue that the second half of the "stagflation" may occur."Stagflation" China securities journal reporter said, seems to have not come true.The emergence of "stagflation" usually because of the sharp of the supply curve shift to the left, and wage and price spiral.Previous prices suggests inflation still is closely connected with overheated demand in China, rising prices and the fall is more economic cycle transformation of transient phenomena.But what is certain is that the current to control the cautious reason lies in, once in the fourth quarter of next year, or the economic "cold", will greatly increase the recovery cost.(reporter Han Xiaodong)
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