The economic cooperation and organization development released by comprehensive economic index, the report said the group members may first index rose only 0.1 points, since the second half of last year is the tenth month consecutive of growth reduce.Much of the developed countries in economic development cycle is at or near peak, which drive the recovery of some developing countries are also slow down the pace.This means that in the future a period of time, the world's major economies may face an anemic recovery, slowed.The main factors of slow recovery in developed economies are: for the us, the financial market turmoil on the financial institutions to lend mood, still high unemployment affect consumer confidence index rose, business inventories again complete restricted the investment in fixed assets continue to grow, the euro zone economic growth fell back to the United States export growth;For the euro zone sovereign debt crisis severely weaken the momentum of southern Europe, and the related national fiscal austerity plans to some extent damaged the medium and long term growth prospects and financial institutions face potential losses also restricts their support for real economic growth.The oecd report also pointed out that some of the emerging economies' future growth rates will also fall.Europe and the United States economic growth is slowing, fall in import demand, may lead to implement the strategy of export-oriented countries such as India's exports are falling, and resource exporters of Brazil, Russia and other countries of falling exports.
Although the world economic growth will be in the second half of 2010 and a drop in the first half of 2011, the world economy "double-dip" or the possibility of a return to recession is very small.According to the international monetary fund in July 2010, the latest forecast, in the first half of 2010 economic growth rate of 3% in developed countries, fell to 2% in the second half, throughout the year reached 2.6%, further to 2.4% in the whole year of 2011;Emerging market countries and developing countries in 2010 and 2011 the economic growth rate will reach 6.8% and 6.4% respectively;The growth rate of the world economy in 2010 and 2011 were 4.6% and 4.3% respectively.Compared with 2009-0.6%, more than 4% of the world economic growth is not no matter how "double-dip recession".The risk of a "double-dip" although is not big, but the world economic growth and financial stability risks are on the rise.The European Union and the international monetary fund has launched an unprecedented 750 billion euro bailout, but Europe's sovereign debt crisis is still in the extension and spread.After Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Britain also under pressure.Large holdings of the above countries of Europe and the United States government bonds whether a financial institutions will be involved in the crisis, caused by the sovereign debt crisis field to private financial sector again?Fiscal austerity plan is means that the debtor countries such as Greece would default risk only a temporary delay, and by 2012 will have to face a large amount of debt maturity default again before and after the dilemma?Once these uncertainties to misconduct, will evolve in pairs real threat to the world economy.Although growth in the second half of this year will fall, but is still in the recovery of world economy, "double-dip" is unlikely.However, sovereign debt risk, should pay attention to the balance sheet risk and deflation risks.How to maintain the appropriate growth of premise to implement structural adjustment, is a common challenge faced by the global economy.
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